China Politics Weekly No. 103- August 15, 2016

Subscribe to the weekly email to get CPW in your inbox days before it is posted to the web.  Just send an email to info@chinapoliticsweekly.com.

Download this week’s newsletter as a PDF here: CPW No. 103

Dear friends and colleagues,

The leadership has been in Beidaihe for the past two weeks, meaning that the black box of Chinese politics has been particularly opaque of late. There have been no public appearances since July 30^th by any Standing Committee members except for Liu Yunshan’s visit to experts vacationing at Beidaihe on August 5^th. Everybody should be getting back to work this week.

I have been in Beijing and Tangshan doing research, working and catching up with friends. A few quick impressions:

• Everybody is focused on the 19^th Party Congress. There are quite a few rumors about who might get promoted (or sidelined), but nothing that is particularly credible, or worth repeating. Expect more and more chatter (and another tiger takedown?) as we get closer to the congress.
• Despite (or perhaps because of) the focus on politics, it feels like there is an increasing urgency around economic policy. The supply-side agenda has become more fleshed out, and there is movement on overcapacity and SOE reform. Measures still do not go far enough, but it would be incorrect to say that nothing is happening. There is still no plan to deal with the debt, but in this area too there is a lot of discussion and debate.
• Unfortunately, despite an increased focus on economic policy, there is still a lot of confusion and local officials are unsure of what to do. In many areas, central policy seems to pull in different directions. Should authorities shut down polluting factories? Or maintain economic growth? Should SOEs be “bigger, better, stronger”? Or should they be streamlined? These are only a few of many examples that I have heard in the past two weeks. Personally, I think there is a way to square these circles, but it shouldn’t be me that has to explain China’s policies…
• Sentiment regarding Xi Jinping’s leadership has changed with each passing year. Year one was characterized by hope that he would be a transformative leader. Year two, following from the Third Plenum, was full of excitement at the ambitious reform agenda. Year three was one of growing anxiety and disappointment as Xi’s conservative political tendencies became more apparent. Now in year four, the anxiety seems to have morphed into resignation.

I’m still here for another two weeks, so more thoughts to come…

Your comments and feedback are always welcome. Old issues are always available at www.chinapoliticsweekly.com. Sign up or unsubscribe by sending an email to info@chinapoliticsweekly.com.